The last time Carlos Alcaraz played the Australian Open, he was an 18-year-old ranked outside the top 30.
The Spanish star will this time arrive at Melbourne Park as the reigning Wimbledon champion, a two-time major winner and former world No.1.
As the sport’s brightest young star with a game extraordinarily complete for his age, a third Grand Slam triumph at AO 2024 is certainly within reach.
Here’s why.
He’s the biggest threat to Novak Djokovic
If any man hopes to win the Australian Open, they almost inevitably have to go through world No.1 Djokovic – the most dominant men’s champion in the tournament’s history.
Novak Djokovic is targeting his 11th title at Melbourne Park and has not lost at the event since 2018, unbeaten in his past 28 matches. He is a staggering 20-0 in Australian Open semifinals and finals throughout his career.
But if anyone can stop him, it’s Alcaraz, who’s proven to be the biggest threat to Djokovic’s reign at the top of the sport.
“I haven’t played a player like him ever, to be honest,” Djokovic admitted after losing to Alcaraz in a pulsating five-set Wimbledon final six months ago.
Novak Djokovic exacted revenge in their epic Cincinnati final, however, an under-discussed takeaway from that meeting was that Alcaraz was just a point away from a straight-sets win. Had he converted, he would have extended his head-to-head lead over Djokovic to 3-1.
He didn’t, of course, but it was further evidence Alcaraz forces Djokovic to his limits more than any other player currently at the top of the game.
He knows how to win majors
One of those matches was the aforementioned Wimbledon final, Alcaraz’s second major title in the space of 12 months.
He broke through for his first at the 2022 US Open, a triumph vaulting him to world No.1.
Alcaraz’s record at Grand Slam tournaments is becoming fearsome.
He has reached at least the semifinal stage at his past four, and the quarterfinals at six of his past eight. He has won 41 of his 50 career Grand Slam matches.
He’s also 1-1 in career Grand Slam meetings against Djokovic.
He’ll have extra motivation in Australia
The only Slam at which Alcaraz has yet to make an impact is the Australian Open, and he will be determined to change that in 2024.
The youngster missed AO 2023 after sustaining a hamstring injury in practice; a year earlier, he came extremely close to a big win only to fall in a fifth-set tiebreak to Matteo Berrettini.
Then ranked world No.7, Berrettini went on to beat Pablo Carreno Busta and Gael Monfils to reach his first AO semifinal.
That result remains the only time Alcaraz has lost a fifth set. He is 6-0 since, the most recent his five-set Wimbledon win over Djokovic.
He’s won every other big hard court tournament
Another source of motivation for Alcaraz? The Australian Open is the only big gap left in his outdoor hard-court CV.
The Spaniard has won the sport’s three other biggest outdoor hard-court tournaments – the Miami and US Opens in 2022, and Indian Wells in 2023.
His credentials on the surface are obvious; in the past two seasons he had built a 45-9 record on outdoor hard courts.
That’s a success rate of more than 83 per cent, not far off his clay-court winning percentage (88) in the same timeframe.
He’ll be fresher than most others
Alcaraz only played 4 events, totalling 12 matches, for the rest of 2023 after his US Open semifinal exit to Daniil Medvedev.
He played just 17 tournaments last year, missed the last-season Davis Cup finals – Spain did not qualify – and is not playing an AO 2024 lead-up tournament.
Except for Djokovic, everyone else in the top five played more matches in 2023 than Alcaraz, who contested 77 (winning 65).
In a sport with a gruelling 11-month calendar and limited off-season, Alcaraz’s lighter scheduling could prove beneficial when the intensity of the AO 2024 fortnight ramps up.
