Following the conclusion of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, the second of back-to-back 1000-point tournaments takes place this coming fortnight in Miami.
Only 11 players (seven men, four women) have won the Sunshine Double, most recently on the men’s side Roger Federer (2017) and on the women’s side Iga Swiatek (2022). A mere three of those 11 players are active: Swiatek, Victoria Azarenka, and Novak Djokovic. Just two of those three are in Miami this year, as Djokovic recently withdrew.
Having triumphed in Tennis Paradise on Sunday, Swiatek has a chance to complete the Sunshine Double for the second time in three years. However, Elena Rybakina is back after missing Indian Wells and Swiatek could also be challenged by Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, and others.
Here are my best bets for the women’s 2024 Miami Open.
Elena Rybakina (+600)
Swiatek’s odds (+175) are too low to give her any value–especially since she isn’t as good in Miami as she is in Indian Wells. Instead, Rybakina–who thrives in relatively fast Miami conditions–is my top choice. The world No. 4 was unable to play the BNP Paribas Open due to illness, so she is well rested for leg two of the Sunshine Double. Rybakina reached the final last year and there is no reason why she can’t go one step farther this time around. The Kazakh has already captured two titles in 2024 and reached the final of the WTA Premier tournament in Doha.
Naomi Osaka (+5000)
After Rybakina, let’s look to some much longer shots. Osaka is making her comeback from a year-long absence following the birth of his first child. It would be very Osaka-like if she just suddenly wins a huge title from basically out of nowhere instead of slowly building momentum before winning one in more expected fashion. It’s true that Osaka doesn’t have much momentum heading into Miami, but at the same time she hasn’t been terrible so far in 2024. The four-time Grand Slam champion advanced to the quarterfinals in Doha and won two matches in Indian Wells. She has a good draw in Miami on the opposite side from Rybakina and in different quarter than Swiatek. That could give her a chance.
Victoria Azarenka (+10000)
One of my picks for last year’s Miami Open was Petra Kvitova at…you guessed it…100-to-1. Now Azarenka has the same odds, and the similarities don’t end there. Azarenka is also a two-time major champion and also well into her 30s (34). Like Kvitova was last season, Azarenka is playing well despite obviously being past her prime. The former world No. 1 comes in at No. 32 in the rankings and is seeded 27th, so she has the benefit of a first-round bye. Azarenka has a favorable draw in Miami, as she would not run into Rybakina until the semifinals and Swiatek until the title match. The Belarusian is already a three-time winner in Miami; making it four is not beyond the realm of imagination.
