The Serbian will lose many positions in the ATP ranking from now until the end of the year, with the risk that entails for the 2025 Grand Slams.
All dreams have been fulfilled, and for the first time in history, it seems that the ambition of Novak Djokovic has significantly diminished. This is evidenced by the fact that he has hinted that his last tournament in 2024 will be the Shanghai Masters 1000, prioritizing spending time with family and accepting that he will arrive at the 2025 Australian Open in a lower position in the ATP ranking.
When you have absolutely achieved everything, it is logical to feel fulfilled and experience a significant void when looking to the future. Novak Djokovic is 37 years old, the best player in history by numbers, indisputably, and already has all the trophies you can imagine in his collection. The physical and mental effort required to stay at the top are too high for the short-term goals ahead. His almost certain decision that the ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai 2024 will be his last official tournament this year is seen by many as the starting point for his retirement.
– Djokovic will drop out of the top 10 if he only plays in Shanghai for the remainder of the season
It is reasonable that competing in the ATP Finals 2024 is not particularly motivating for a man who is already the most successful player in the history of that event. It is also unappealing for him to face an indoor circuit leaving home to compete in Paris and then in Turin. It seems clear that the only thing that could bring back Djokovic’s most competitive edge would be the Grand Slams, but this logical decision to rest comes with an irrefutable consequence: his drop in the ATP ranking and the arrival at the 2025 Australian Open in an unusual position for him.
Currently ranked fourth in the official classification, the Serbian could lose 2,300 points by the end of the year, with the Shanghai tournament being his only chance to cushion the fall that would result from that decrease in points. A strong performance in the Chinese event could potentially keep Novak within the top 10, although even in that scenario, it seems challenging.
– He would arrive at the 2025 Australian Open in a position that would force him to face one of the best in the octaves or quarters
Arriving in Melbourne among the top 12 would be a priority to avoid facing the top four players until hypothetical quarterfinals. However, if he is ranked between 13th and 16th, he might find himself playing against Sinner, Alcaraz, Zverev, or possibly Medvedev in the octaves. It is possible that Djokovic might participate in some events before the first Grand Slam of the year, such as the United Cup 2025, where representing Serbia could provide the necessary motivation to find the competitive rhythm and confidence needed to arrive well prepared for the 2025 Australian Open, along with a points boost to climb the rankings.
The performance that Novak Djokovic may deliver in the early stages of next year appears crucial in determining whether he will make short or medium-term retirement decisions. Even for a sports legend like him, it will be difficult to stay competitive and contend for Grand Slam titles while competing infrequently, due to the quality of opponents he may face and the challenges of maintaining both intensity and motivation to win such high-stakes events.
