HOUSTON – Statewide polling shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton with a narrow lead over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn for the Republican Senate nomination, while U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett leads among likely Democratic candidates.
2026 Republican Senate primary
By the numbers:
The latest polling, conducted between Sept. 19 and Oct. 1, shows Paxton with a 1% lead over Cornyn, with 34% of likely primary voters saying they would vote for the attorney general while 33% said they would vote for Cornyn. U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt was third in the poll, garnering support from 22% of likely voters. Eleven percent of voters said they were unsure who they would vote for.
(Hobby School of Public Affairs)
The University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs poll shows Cornyn with more support from women voters, 37% to Paxton’s 28% and Hunt’s 18%. While Paxton gets the nod among male voters, 38% compared to Cornyn’s 30% and Hunt’s 24%.
Hobby’s poll shows that Hunt’s candidacy is hurting Cornyn more than Paxton, because in a two-person race, 44% of voters said they were likely to vote for Cornyn over Paxton, who drew the support of 43% of likely voters.
How much does an endorsement from President Trump matter?
The race to determine who represents Republicans in the 2026 Senate election could very well hinge on which candidate, if any, is endorsed by President Donald Trump.
Half of voters polled said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate that has the president’s backing, compared to 10% of voters who said they were less likely to vote for a Trump-endorsed candidate. The remaining 40% of voters said the president’s endorsement had no bearing on how they would vote.
2026 Democratic Senate primary
On the Democratic side of the 2026 Senate race, Rep. Jasmine Crockett has the lead in the polls over former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, state Rep. James Talirico and former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke.
In the poll, 31% of likely voters said they would vote for Crockett, with Talarico and O’Rourke both getting 25% of likely voters and Allred garnering the favor of 13% of voters. Six percent of those polled said there were unsure who would get their vote.
(Hobby School of Public Affairs)
Neither Crockett nor O’Rourke have officially announced they would seek the party’s nomination.
In two-candidate races, Crockett has a 23% lead over Allred, 57% to 34%, a 18% lead over Talarico, 52% to 34%, and a 10% lead over O’Rourke, 51% to 41%.
Among the two candidates that have declared for the race, Allred holds a 4% lead over Talarico with 46% of those polled saying they would vote for Allred compared to 42% for Talarico. Twelve percent of voters said they were unsure.
Who is leading in the general election?
By the numbers:
According to Hobby’s polling, Republicans lead in every hypothetical race in the general election with a lead between 1% and 6% depending on the candidates.
Cornyn has one of the largest leads against a Democratic candidate at 6% if the Democratic candidate is Crockett, 50% to 44% with 6% undecided. Cornyn’s lead slips to 3% against Talarico (48% to 45%) and O’Rourke (49% to 46%). Cornyn polls the worst against Allred holding only a 2% lead, 48% to 46%.
Hunt also holds a 6% lead if the election were to come down to him and Talarico with 50% of voters saying they would vote to the congressman and 44% saying they would vote for Talarico. Hunt holds a 5% lead over Crockett (50% to 45%) and Allred (50% to 45%), and a 2% lead over O’Rourke (49% to 47%).
Paxton fairs the worst among Republican candidates in the general election with his largest margin a 3% lead over O’Rourke (49% to 46%) and Talarico (49% to 46%). Paxton’s lead shrinks to 2% against Crockett (49% to 47%) and just 1% over Allred (48% to 47%).
Republican nomination for attorney general
The poll also asked voters about the Republican race for the attorney general nomination.
By the numbers:
Congressman Chip Roy holds a large lead over the other candidates, with 40% of voters saying they intend to vote for Roy. State Sen. Joan Huffman was the choice of 12% of those polled, with 8% supporting Aaron Reitz and 3% supporting state Sen. Mayes Middleton.
The race could still be wide open as 37% of those polled said they were unsure of how they would vote. Some primary voters said they didn’t know enough about the candidates, with 36% saying they didn’t know enough about Roy to have an opinion about voting for him, while 65% said they did not know enough about Middleton, 63% about Reitz and 58% about Huffman.
This is another race where a presidential endorsement could sway voters, as 56% of Republican primary voters said they would be more likely to vote for a Trump-endorsed candidate, while 8% said they would be less likely and 36% said an endorsement would have an impact on their vote.
How do voters feel about President Trump?
The poll asked voters who voted in the 2024 presidential election how they would vote if they could go back and vote again.
The polling found that while 56% of those polled said they voted for Trump in 2024, only 49% would still vote for Trump if the election happened now. While Trump’s vote share would drop by 7% based on the poll, it would have only led to a 2% increase for Kamala Harris.
Among those polled, 43% said they voted for Harris in 2024, with 45% of those polled saying they would vote for Harris if the election happened now. The other voters said they would vote for other candidates (2%), were unsure of how they would vote (2%), or they would not vote at all (2%). Only 1% of voters said they voted for other candidates in 2024.
(Hobby School of Public Affairs)
The polling also compared support for Trump among several demographic groups and showed the president is losing the most support among independent voters with a 20% decline; support from Gen-Z voters is down 16%, while support from Latino voters is down 12%.
Still, Republican voters view Trump favorably, with 87% of likely Republican primary voters holding a favorable opinion of the president. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Sen. Ted Cruz are seen favorably by 84% of primary voters, while Paxton sits at 70% favorability, Cornyn at 68% and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has just a 65% favorability rating.
The poll surveyed 1,650 people ages 18 and older with a 2.41% margin of error. See the full results here.
The Source: Information in this article comes from a poll conducted by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University between Sept. 19 and Oct. 1, 2025.
